There are 12 "good" teams in the western conference but only 10 make the postseason and 8 make the playoffs.

Those 12 teams are

1. OKC: an overwhelming favorite to be the 1 seed with a 27-5 record. They are not in this market.

2. MEM: 23-11 despite dealing with numerous injuries they are deep and well coached (15 players playing at least 12 MPG, no players over 29 MPG) but have some potential to collapse considering they went 27-55 last season when Ja only played 9 games and are not considered a championship contender (5th best odds to win west) likely due to shortened rotations in the playoffs.

3. HOU: 22-11 a young team that's taken a leap, will they regress?

4. DEN: 19-13 a preseason favorite who's underperformed despite another historic year from Jokic and solid support. They have the opposite problem of the top 3 seeds with their depth lacking especially at the backup center spot.

5. DAL: 20-14 won the west last year, dealing with an injury to Luka. Collapsed to the 11 seed in 2023.

6. LAC: 19-14 are exceeding expectations after the departure of Paul George and Kawhi's disappearance led by Harden and the improvements from Powell and Zubac with the coaching prowess of Ty Lue making the most of a talent dry roster

7. LAL: 18-14 led by LeBron James (now 40) and Anthony Davis, the Lakers have always been deficient in depth leading to a collapse/tank to the 11 seed in 2022 a near collapse in 2021 due to injuries to LeBron and AD. In 2023, they stayed afloat amid injuries with Russell and Reaves. With a -2.4 point differential and the age/durability concerns of their top 2 players a collapse is quite possible.

8. MIN: 17-16 Still considered a top 4 favorite to win the west they have hovered around .500 after trading away KAT and Conley becoming old.

9. SAS: 17-16 A young team led by 21 year old 7'4 phenom Wembanyama, they might regress or fall out of the picture with the veteran teams locking in for the playoff push

10. GSW: 16-16 after a (flukey?) 12-3 start the Warriors went on to lose 13 of the next 17 and fall back to .500

11. PHX: 15-17, started 9-2 but struggled to win with injuries to Durant and Booker.

12. SAC: 15-19, started 7-5 and fired coach Mike Brown after a 5 game losing streak. The Kings have not been a successful franchise in the last 20 years. Their 2023 playoff appearance seems like a one year wonder. Their +1.3 point differential may hint at progression

    Resolution criteria is somewhat subjective:

    Potential scenarios:

    • If a team trades away core pieces for no immediate compensation (e.g. future prospects or picks) at or before the trade deadline the with the intention of tanking/missing the playoffs. It will likely resolve YES

    • Team's that win 35 or fewer games are likely to resolve YES

    • Teams currently hovering around .500 and finish with 40+ wins are likely to resolve NO

    • The Grizzlies and Rockets could be considered to collapse even if they make the playoffs if they fall to the 7 or 8 seed (Play-In tournament) and win fewer than 45 games

    • Nuggets and Mavs missing playoffs as a current top 3 favorite to win conference would likely entail a collapse.

    • Recent examples of collapses:

      2024 Jazz were hovering around .500 then blatantly tanked to 31-51 with a 3-24 finish to the season, 2023 Jazz also collapsed tanked after starting 10-3 or so, 2023 Blazers were similar starting as a top 2 seed then tanking their way to 33-49, 2023 Mavs collapsed from a top 4/5 seed all the way to the 11 seed

    • The 2022 Bulls likely did not collapse after being the 1 seed in January and falling to the 6 seed with a 46-36 record

    • The 2022 Cavs probably collapsed starting as a top seed then falling to the 8 seed at 44-38 and ultimately missing the playoffs

    • 2022 Lakers collapsed

    AI suggestions (not my words they hold no bearing on the resolution, but may be used to clarify tricky scenarios):

    AI Resolution Suggestions A team will be considered to have "tanked/collapsed" if ANY of the following occur:

    • They finish outside the top 10 in the Western Conference (missing the play-in tournament)

    • They fall at least 5 spots from their current position in the standings

    • Their win percentage drops by 20% or more compared to their current win percentage over a sustained period (at least 15 games)

    • They trade away key players in a clear move to rebuild/tank

    • They shut down star players for extended periods despite them being healthy enough to play

    Considerations

    • Several teams have shown historical vulnerability to collapses:

      • Lakers collapsed to 11th seed in 2022

      • Mavericks dropped to 11th seed in 2023

      • Warriors lost 13 of 17 games after a 12-3 start

      • Kings haven't sustained success in over 20 years

    • Injury risks are particularly high for teams relying heavily on stars:

      • Lakers (LeBron/Davis)

      • Suns (Durant/Booker)

      • Mavericks (Doncic)

    • Young teams like the Rockets and Spurs might naturally regress as veteran teams intensify their playoff push

    • Teams with poor point differentials (like the Lakers at -2.4) may be overperforming and due for regression