Number of teams among OKC, CLE, and BOS that make the 2025 NBA conference finals
8
100Ṁ485
May 15
0.9%
0 teams
10%
1 team
42%
2 teams
47%
3 teams

This market predicts how many teams among the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC), Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE), and Boston Celtics (BOS) will reach their respective conference finals in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Resolution will be based on official NBA playoff results.

Resolution criteria: Count the number of these three teams that advance to their conference finals. Market resolves when both conference finals matchups are set.

Sources:

Note that each of

  • OKC makes conference finals

  • CLE make conference finals

  • BOS makes conference finals

    are essentially independent from another since it is highly unlikely that any of these teams meet before the conference final (since either CLE/BOS are likely to be the 1 seed and both are highly likely to finish as top 3 seeds)

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Why was 2 bet up to 70%?

I think all 3 teams are heavy favorites (>70%) to make the Conference Finals.

If you're (>50%) confident that exactly 2 will make the conference finals that means you think 2 of the teams are almost guaranteed to make the conference finals (>90%) and the 3rd has less than 30% of making it.

Which team do you think is unlikely to make the Conference finals?

OKC vs DEN/LAC?

CLE vs IND/MIL?

or BOS vs NYK/DET?

or do you think the events are correlated so that if two make it the 3rd is unlikely (idk maybe we think NBA is rigging the playoffs to have upsets?)

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