This market covers the fixed 9:00 AM–1:00 PM Central Time observation window over Madison, Wisconsin.
Resolution will be based exclusively on archived footage from UW–Madison’s five AOSS rooftop cameras, which face west, northwest, north, east and south:
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/WebCam.html
YES — At least one camera records a discrete linear trail that remains identifiable for 20 minutes or longer, including a trail that visibly widens or spreads while remaining traceable.
NO — No trail satisfies that requirement, provided at least three cameras each supply two cumulative hours of usable sky visibility during the four-hour window. Brief lines that quickly vanish do not qualify, and separate short-lived trails cannot be combined to reach 20 minutes.
If technical failures or near-total cloud obstruction prevent the minimum usable-camera coverage, cancellation will be requested under Manifold’s rules.
Betting closes at 8:55 AM CT, before the observation window begins. The footage will be audited after 1:00 PM, and the decisive timestamped evidence—or the negative audit result—will be posted with the resolution.
The market creator may wager based on a separately published forecast. That forecast will not be reproduced or updated here before betting closes. Other bettors are responsible for their own research.
Camera imagery: UW–Madison SSEC/AOS.
1,000