Will I encounter Issue Number 2 when I resolve this market?
Will I encounter Issue Number 2 when I resolve this market?
1
120Ṁ12May 1
26%
chance
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This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero. Additional info: This market is reliability check for the bedtime accountability chatbot I'm working on (emile.chat). At the time of resolution, I will check whether or not a random Emile user received their daily check-ins from Emile as expected in the last seven days. If everything is as expected, this resolves NO. If they did not receive a check-in as expected, this resolves YES. I believe I solved the root cause of the bug that motivated me to maintain this reliability metric, but I still think it's worth keeping these markets around.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.