BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET Ṁ2!*
When this market closes, one of "continue playing" or "stop playing" will be chosen with probabilities proportional to the probabilities of the respective options.
NOTE: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY GET TAKEN!
Market Rules
After this market closes, the appropriate action will be simulated, and if that action is "Continue Playing," a new market will be created with the same prompt.
At the end of the game:
If there are an even number of rounds, all markets will be resolved to "Lose"
If there are an odd number of rounds, all markets will be resolved to their respective played actions.
This is Round 1. If "Stop Playing" is selected, the market will resolve to that action, i.e. "Stop Playing".
I will not bet on this market.
Market Close Time
This market will close once there are 35 unique traders of this market. (Plus the time it takes me to realize that the threshold has been reached, plus approximately 24 hours for users to bet freely.)
Additionally, I will post a comment approximately 24 hours before close.
What are the best bets to take on this market?
This is an experiment to see if this type of thing will actually work. I have no idea what the correct actions are for this market. Bet whatever you want, and have fun!
*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here: https://manifold.markets/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma
@CharlesLien It looks like this market might not ever get to 35 traders. I wonder if it might be worth setting a random close time within some 24h window, so that it doesn’t stay open indefinitely?