As of the latest update from LM Arena (lmarena.ai) on 2025-02-16, chocolate (Early Grok-3) only has ratings in English, Chinese, Russian, and Korean, while ratings for French, German, Spanish, and Japanese are absent. I take this as evidence that Grok-3 is based on a Chinese model.

Resolution

• "Because it's based on a Chinese model..." resolves as YES if no credible alternative explanation emerges within 30 days.

• "Because Musk is cooperating with the Chinese..." resolves as YES if no credible alternative explanation emerges within 30 days. Grok-3 seems too strong to be merely a fine-tuned version of, for example, DeepSeek v3 / r1, suggesting either an advanced, unreleased Chinese model or some level of cooperation, such as e.g. shared training data.

• "It's purely coincidental" and "Other" will resolve as NO unless supporting evidence appears within 30 days.

I may add additional explanations if they seem warranted.

I will not bet in this market.

• Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to Resolution Criteria:

  • The new update on LM Arena now includes a Japanese rating that has slightly over 300 votes, which confirms the threshold theory.

  • This update disproves the earlier implied evidence for Grok 3 being based on a Chinese model.

  • Consequently, unless new evidence emerges before March 20:

  • The options "Because it's based on a Chinese model...", "Because Musk is cooperating with the Chinese...", and "It's purely coincidental" will resolve as NO.

  • The option "Other." will resolve as YES.