Trump moves the market before June?
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100Ṁ184May 31
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You need to specify what this means.
e.g. "Market closes the day after a Trump announcement 5% higher or lower than it was at start of trading previous day" (this still has the big problem of defining "Trump announcement" in the case if there's ambiguity as to whether Trump caused the move or not, you could do something like "An announcement is any time Trump, his press secretary or the White House accounts write that there'll be an announcement/big new/statement by Trump as such and such time and then Trump speaks"