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Seems to have resolved early? The announcement hasn't been made yet.

It's all over CNN

Yes, but when I posted that, the announcement still hadn't been made. CNN was saying what they believed would happen, based on certain sources.

(The point is moot now that the announcement has been made.)

I can't get over how BAD of a pick Buttigieg would be. He's like the perfect Bad Pick. Not only is he wildly boring and unlikely to pick up a swing state for the election, Republicans can already point to one of the major policy failures they've already been pointing at: he East Palestine train derailment. They can even make it VP related if they make it about how Pete failed to get Biden to pay major attention to it for such a long time (regardless of how able he'd have been or how true anything they're saying is).

@Paatrick if I were the Democratic establishment trying to win Michigan and Minnesota I'd steer clear of a Jewish candidate.

Two Mark Kellys?

@mods any recommendations for how to address this?

I recommend editing the smaller one to say [invalid]

It's odd that Manifold allowed two identical options

I'd imagine they don't consider that validating incoming options is ɪ ᴍ ᴘ ᴀ ᴄ ᴛ ғ ᴜ ʟ

@mods N/A “[invalid]” to get rid of it.

We can't N/A options in a linked multichoice market.

You'd think it'd be pretty easy to verify that an option doesn't already exist

I would avoid conditional markets without a "Biden doesn't drop out" option, because of Manifold's new policy on N/A resolutions

Isn’t that importantly different than a conditional markets?

yes, but that's the point: Manifold is trying to discourage conditional markets to avoid N/A resolutions

Fair enough. I just probably wouldn’t describe this as a conditional market at all then. It’s a normal market where one of the outcomes is “not condition X”.

Btw, is there a link to this recent policy? I looked around the FAQ and stuff but couldn’t find anything that suggested they were discouraging clearly articulated conditions where the market would resolve as N/A.

@benshindel What is Manifolds new policy? I can't find it anywhere