Will Willa's website go online by Aug 28
10
100Ṁ657resolved Aug 29
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolved to Yes if anybody posts Willa's website in comment. Said comment gets upvoted a shit ton by me.
This is Willa
https://www.lesswrong.com/users/willa

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predictedNO 2y
It is up!!
I DID THE THING!!! https://immortalityisgreat.substack.com/p/have-you-considered-getting-rid-of?sd=pf
-- Willa
Looks like the site is http://immortalityisgreat.com, which will presumably redirect to https://immortalityisgreat.substack.com once complete. The "coming soon" message was posted Tuesday and the first post was being written yesterday so I'd give it decent chances at it being up by Sunday.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.