Does Manifold like Moon/Mars-related markets?
resolved May 1

I have seen a lot of Moon/Mars-related markets on my feed recently, and I want to know if people like them.

This resolves to the result of a poll that will stay up for a week after this market closes.

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Resolved YES

(My apologies for the incorrect resolution for less than a minute, I misclicked and immediately realised lol)


Market closes in a couple of hours!

I like "meaningful" Moon/Mars related markets. There's a really substantial space enthusiast community on the site who are pretty active betting on questions around when and if missions will launch and if they will succeed.

I'm kind of agnostic about the latest rash of markets. If taken one at a time, they are still mostly interesting and "meaningful", but I don't much like at all the fact that they have for now swamped space feeds and pushed the older questions out a bit.

@JoshuaWilkes I think this market is mostly in response to the flood of ridiculous "Will X on Moon in 2060?" markets.

@Pykess Yes, I think so too.

I'm just trying to hold space for the older (better?) Moon/Mars markets

@JoshuaWilkes haha whats the best moon/mars market of all time?

next up: 'will a man visit mars before a women visits venus'

@strutheo all of these are good markets that add value:

bought Ṁ5 YES

I really like seeing them but unfortunately I rarely have enough knowledge to meaningfully bet

i did it on a whim and everyone followed i think lol

@strutheo Yes, I figured that's what happened! I have just seen a huge number of those markets recently and got curious about what people think about them. Markets that have a very remote probability of actually resolving are not my cuppa tea, but that's just my preference