Will there be 30+ individuals with Date Docs profiles on Manifold by end of 2023?
Will there be 30+ individuals with Date Docs profiles on Manifold by end of 2023?
14
250Ṁ1801resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://manifold.markets/date-docs
Only counts user profiles that are seeking romantic or sexual connection - profiles that are just looking for friends (if any) will be excluded.
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@IsaacKing I posted resolution rationale under /CarsonGale/will-there-be-50-individuals-with-d. Given the circumstances in which the question was formed changed so materially over the course of the market I felt it better to resolve "N/A".
I could have resolved No, deciding that Manifold Love didn't count and the deprecated Date Docs page not having any profiles listed answered the question. Or I could have resolved Yes, interpreting the spirit of Manifold Date Docs as an early formation of what Manifold Love is now. I felt it was too ambiguous and resolved N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.