This market resolves to "Yes" if the candidate who wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US Presidential election also wins the overall presidential election. It resolves to "No" if the candidate who wins Pennsylvania does not win the overall election.
Pennsylvania is often considered a key battleground state, and its outcome could be indicative of broader national results. However, this market specifically depends on the winner of Pennsylvania and their success in the overall electoral count.
Key Details:
The market will resolve based on certified election results.
"Winning Pennsylvania" refers to the candidate receiving the majority of Pennsylvania's electoral votes.
"Winning the election" refers to the candidate receiving the majority of the electoral votes nationally.
If Pennsylvania's results are contested or recounted, the resolution will be based on the official final outcome.
Related questions
@CarsonGaleWhat model is that from, Silver? It's wild how 1 voter from Pennsylvania (the median voter) has all the power in deciding the entire election.
The only power the other 200 million Americans have is sitting out/voting 3rd party which only hurts their preferred candidate (i.e. Their vote has no power or impact on the result of the election, it's just a chore)
Compare that to the median voter in PA who has a 85% say in who wins the election.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy Saying a median voter decides the outcome of the election is like saying that all the mass of an object is located in whatever particle happens to be at the center of mass. A median is a property of a collection, not an individual. If you have the numbers 1, 4, 15, 38, and 82, then the median is 15. 15 can stay exactly the same, but if the other numbers change to 37, 44, 87, and 98, then the median changes from 15 to 44. It takes the whole collection to define the median.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy Not quite that bad: https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/where-is-your-vote-worth-the-most