Will any question in the next Philpapers survey get at least 90% agreement?

Question

Agreement = 'accept' and 'lean toward' combined.

The Philpapers survey tracks the beliefs of professional philosophers in the English-speaking world (broadly construed) on a range of questions. So far, no position has received more than about 80% support except for certain specific options, e.g. human beings are conscious, which I will disregard. Only positions that did not receive >= 90% agreement in previous surveys will count.

The last survey was in 2020. The previous one, which was the first, was in 2009. I don't know when the next survey will take place, but David Chalmers says it would be reasonable to expect it around 2030 (https://twitter.com/davidchalmers42/status/1637813483545690112?s=20).

https://survey2020.philpeople.org/

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (11 traders, as of Jan 19, 2026).