My partner and I will be traveling through Brazil and Ecuador over the course of ~3 weeks (10/7-10/30). We will be passing through Manaus, Sao Paulo, Santos, Igauacu, Quito, and Cuenca. We are both clearly foreigners, will be wearing expensive-looking backpacks, and will likely be traveling through the streets in the late evenings (though we will try to avoid areas that seem dangerous).
I have been previously robbed at gunpoint in Brazil when walking around the streets of Belem in the evening.
The market resolves "Yes" if I am persuaded by force to give any of my possessions to someone else outside of the United States during the next month.
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@CarsonGale Ive stopped betting on this market going forward BTW (now that the trip has started)
Prediction markets are less accurate near the extremes of the scale. Even markets that are 100% guaranteed to resolve to NO will tend to stabilize anywhere from 0.5% to 5%, depending on when they're closing and what the volume is. (Manifold is working on ways to mitigate this, but so far they've been unsuccessful.)
There's also resolution risk. You're not a well-known user on Manifold, so people have to factor in that you might resolve this market dishonestly. Even if you came back from your vacation and posted a comment saying "ok, I didn't get mugged", it would still be irrational to bet this market down to 0%, since the chance that you resolve it wrong is higher than that.
Resolution risk is especially relevant on a market like this one where the true result is unverifiable; if you resolve the market incorrectly, people will likely never even find out that that happened.
(And even users with a long history of accurate resolutions have misclicked before, so it's not just the fact that you're a relative unknown.)
I think you can be confident that your "true" risk of getting mugged is less than 12%, but I would not be confident that it's higher than 5%.
(Where I'm defining "true risk" as something like "the probability calculated by a perfectly rational Bayesian reasoner given only the information you currently have access to.)
@IsaacKing Thanks for the comment - that generally makes sense.
With the resolution risk, you would think that should be in favor of betting "No", since if I were to be dishonest I would do it in my own favor! (I have a large "No" position in this market).
Interesting implication that I have insider knowledge and therefore a market advantage just by knowing my propensity not to misclick / lie / forget about the market.
Current profit to be made in this market by traveling to Brazil and robbing @CarsonGale is $6.98 USD. Probably less than you'll get from their wallet, but not nothing!