Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030? | Manifold Markets

1

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

12

closes 2031

65%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves if, per Preqin, a fund is raised with over $98,583M of commitments (the size of the SoftBank vision fund) by 12/31/30.

As of market creation, the next largest fund is the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund II, with ~$30B of commitments.

Carson's Important Markets

Private Markets

Related markets

Part 1: In 2023, will venture capitalists invest in more moonshot, seed-stage startups?52%

Will the Cosmos ecosystem market cap reach 300B USDe before 2025?41%

By 2030, will any US company be more valuable than the (other) top 5 tech companies combined?11%

Brian T. Edwards

Will Alphabet make a 10 figure or more investment in any startup during 2023?23%

What will be the global venture capital investments in 2023 in billions of USD?445

Will Apple have the largest market cap of any publicly traded US company by the end of 2023?81%

What company will have the biggest market cap at the end of 2023?

Will Tesla be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?71%

Brian T. Edwards

Will Apple have a valuation >=$3 trillion by the end of 2023?61%

Will Apple be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?98%

Marcus Abramovitch

Will any company be acquired for over $20B in 2023?73%

Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?72%

Will Apple surpass $3 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023?58%

Metaculus BotBot

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?62%

By end of 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars?40%

Which of these tech companies will be the first to reach a market cap of $3 trillion?

Will the total stock market equity capitalization hit 190% of GDP by the end of March 2024?15%

Will Alibaba be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?22%

Marcus Abramovitch

Will any company be acquired for over $10B in 2023?80%

Will Meta be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?60%

Related markets

Part 1: In 2023, will venture capitalists invest in more moonshot, seed-stage startups?52%

Will the Cosmos ecosystem market cap reach 300B USDe before 2025?41%

By 2030, will any US company be more valuable than the (other) top 5 tech companies combined?11%

Brian T. Edwards

Will Alphabet make a 10 figure or more investment in any startup during 2023?23%

What will be the global venture capital investments in 2023 in billions of USD?445

Will Apple have the largest market cap of any publicly traded US company by the end of 2023?81%

What company will have the biggest market cap at the end of 2023?

Will Tesla be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?71%

Brian T. Edwards

Will Apple have a valuation >=$3 trillion by the end of 2023?61%

Will Apple be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?98%

Marcus Abramovitch

Will any company be acquired for over $20B in 2023?73%

Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?72%

Will Apple surpass $3 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023?58%

Metaculus BotBot

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?62%

By end of 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars?40%

Which of these tech companies will be the first to reach a market cap of $3 trillion?

Will the total stock market equity capitalization hit 190% of GDP by the end of March 2024?15%

Will Alibaba be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?22%

Marcus Abramovitch

Will any company be acquired for over $10B in 2023?80%

Will Meta be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?60%