Will 3+ financial institutions experience a "bank run" by end of March 2023?
resolved Apr 1

I will largely defer to mainstream media references for resolution purposes, though I will try to incorporate any market comments into the decision.

The institutions in question need not define themselves explicitly as banks, and they need not go insolvent as a result of the bank run.

"Bank run" can be defined as "A bank run or run on the bank occurs when many clients withdraw their money from a bank, because they believe the bank may fail in the near future."


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predicted NO

I'm resolving NO. I don't see any other headlines that indicate a widespread bank run on other institutions. And the Wiki for list of bank runs only lists SVB.

Please let me know if you disagree with this resolution and we can discuss.

bought แน€100 of NO

Looks like it did not happen. Looking at headlines, I can see only SVB

Could SVB, Signature Bank, and First Republic count?

bought แน€15 of NO

@Yoav Yes. (I originally meant to exclude SVB, but obviously forgot when I wrote the question! So I'll include it.)

bought แน€300 of YES

@CarsonGale So bank runs earlier in March would also count then?

predicted NO

@jack I'll count anything after market creation (March 12, 2023). I know the bulk of the SVB bank run occurred on 3/9-10, but considering the situation was still ongoing by market creation I think it counts.

bought แน€40 of NO

@CarsonGale So, for clarity, would you say that this has happened yet?

predicted NO

@Heliscone sorry it's been crazy at work so I haven't been following the news. Which other 2 banks have had a run?

predicted NO

Oh sorry you're just referring to the month ending. Let me do some research over the weekend but off the top of my head I'm not aware of another example that should count.