Will 3+ financial institutions experience a "bank run" by end of March 2023?

Carson Gale

closes Apr 1

Silicon Valley Bankruptcy (SVB)

SVB Crisis

55%

chance

ALL

I will largely defer to mainstream media references for resolution purposes, though I will try to incorporate any market comments into the decision.

The institutions in question need not define themselves explicitly as banks, and they need not go insolvent as a result of the bank run.

"Bank run" can be defined as "A bank run or run on the bank occurs when many clients withdraw their money from a bank, because they believe the bank may fail in the near future."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run

I may trade on this market.

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Yoav

Could SVB, Signature Bank, and First Republic count?

Carson Galebought Ṁ15 of NO

@Yoav Yes. (I originally meant to exclude SVB, but obviously forgot when I wrote the question! So I'll include it.)

Jackbought Ṁ300 of YES

@CarsonGale So bank runs earlier in March would also count then?

Carson Galeis predicting NO at 71%

@jack I'll count anything after market creation (March 12, 2023). I know the bulk of the SVB bank run occurred on 3/9-10, but considering the situation was still ongoing by market creation I think it counts.