If I throw a party for Manifold users in the Bay Area in 2023, how many people will attend?
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resolved Mar 1
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I have 4 roommates, so at least a few of them might attend. I likely wouldn't require that attendees have Manifold accounts, but would only notify others of such a party via Manifold.

Space would likely not be an obstacle.

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predicted HIGHER

This is a tough market to resolve. At several points in the evening, I encouraged guests to fill out the google form, and we ended up receiving 35 responses. But we also had 33 people newly sign on to our WiFi, and there were at least 8 guests that already had WiFi access (and presumably a few that never signed in to our WiFi).

My best guess is that we had ~43 guests throughout the evening, which is how I'll be resolving this market.

Outside of the Manifold team, I've had 6 people confirm and 7 people express interest.

Update: I've had 9 people I know confirm and 8 other people express interest. Outside of that, there are 7 Manifold team members attending and 22 total Manifold users that are "members" of the party group.

predicted HIGHER

I'm pleased to announce that I will be throwing a party for Manifold users on Friday, February 24th. Please refer to the 'About' section in the Carson's Bay Area Manifold Party group for additional details.

predicted LOWER

P(I come) is highly responsive to proximity to Berkeley and possibility of low covid risk attendance (e.g. whether party contains outside area)

predicted HIGHER

@KatjaGrace The event will be held in the Presidio of SF. There will be optional outdoor area (particularly if there are a lot of people) but I would expect most if not all folks will be hanging out indoors. Also, sometimes it gets a tad muddy in our backyard area which isn't ideal.

Is it going to open-to-all, or have a specific invite list?

predicted HIGHER

@IsaacKing Open to all! But I will only spread news of the party via Manifold. (except to inform roommates)

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