I hold a general view that posting on the internet is net positive in many regards. To this end, I am considering starting to use twitter.
Resolution Criteria:
I will count the day start posting on twitter. At the 3-month mark, I'll self-resolve based on whether, on reflection, I judge consistent tweeting to have been net positive for my career and/or intellectual development.
Some considerations I expect to weigh:
Whether tweeting produced conversations, connections, or opportunities I value
Whether the time/attention cost are roughly, under loose estimation, worthy of the gains
Whether it shifted my writing or thinking in directions I endorse on reflection
If I never start using Twitter before the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. If I cannot come to a clear conclusion of "net positive" — e.g., I can only conclude something like "eh, it was low-cost anyway" — the market resolves NO. The bar will be genuine positive judgment, rather than the absence of clear harm.
I acknowledge that the resolution criteria is vague, but I commit to resolving the market in maximal good faith.