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MANIFOLD
Will I be glad I started tweeting? (3-month self-experiment)
10
Ṁ1kṀ399
2027
55%
chance

I hold a general view that posting on the internet is good in many regards. To this end, I am considering starting to use twitter.

Resolution Criteria:

I will mark the day I start posting on twitter; at the 3-month mark, I'll self-resolve based on whether, on reflection, I judge consistent tweeting to have been net positive for my career and/or intellectual development.

Some considerations I expect to weigh:

  • Whether tweeting produced conversations, connections, or opportunities I value

  • Whether the time/attention cost are roughly, under loose estimation, worthy of the gains

  • Whether it shifted my writing or thinking in directions I endorse on reflection

If I never start using Twitter before the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. If I cannot come to a clear conclusion of "net positive" — e.g., I can only conclude something like "eh, it was low-cost anyway" — the market resolves NO. The judgement will yield towards genuine positive judgment, rather than absence of clear harm.

I acknowledge that the resolution criteria is vague, but I commit to resolving the market in good faith.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Three months of tweets is the sweet spot to grow an audience and start to enjoy it. Bit like smoking crack though, it's doing it for ages that will give you the ick.