Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the total number of individuals who meet the definition of a "formal epistemologist" and are physically present as attendees at the Manifest 2026 conference.

A "formal epistemologist" is defined as any attendee who, as of the start of Manifest 2026, holds a PhD or active faculty position at an accredited university or research institution, and meets at least one of the following criteria:

• (a) Lists formal epistemology as an Area of Specialization on their PhilPapers profile or department webpage.

• (b) Publicly identifies formal epistemology as an active research interest.

• (c) Has authored or co-authored at least one peer-reviewed publication on a formal epistemology topic.

Resolution will be based on the official attendee list cross-referenced with public professional profiles (PhilPapers, university websites, and Google Scholar/ORCID) available at the time of the event.

Ambiguous cases will be resolved by @NoahBirnbaum and @MatthewAdelstein through joint discussion. An attendee counts towards the definition only if both agree they qualify; if they cannot reach consensus, the attendee does not count.