This market resolves YES if either Governor Gavin Newsom or LA Mayor Karen Bass are formally charged with criminal negligence related to the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by March 31st, 2025. Resolution will be based on official court records or announcements from the LA District Attorney's office. Currently, there are calls for investigation but no formal charges.

Sources:

• Change.org petition: https://www.change.org/p/prosecute-governor-gavin-newsom-for-criminal-negligence-leading-to-california-wildfires

• DeMaio investigation request: https://ad75.asmrc.org/2025/01/13/demaio-asks-trump-to-order-federal-investigation-of-gross-negligence-by-ca-politicians-in-la-fires/

  Background

  The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires led to widespread criticism of both Governor Gavin Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass's handling of the crisis. Mayor Bass faced particular scrutiny for traveling abroad during a critical period and her management of the LAFD budget. Multiple parties, including Carl DeMaio, have called for investigations into potential negligence, and a Change.org petition is circulating demanding prosecution of Governor Newsom.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves YES if either:

  • Governor Gavin Newsom is formally charged with criminal negligence related to the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by March 31st, 2025

  • LA Mayor Karen Bass is formally charged with criminal negligence related to the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by March 31st, 2025

  Resolution will be based on:

  • Official court records

  • Formal announcements from the Los Angeles District Attorney's office

  • Official criminal complaints filed in any jurisdiction with authority over the matter

  The market resolves NO if neither official is charged with criminal negligence by March 31st, 2025. Calls for investigation, petitions, or public statements alone are not sufficient for YES resolution.

  Considerations

  Criminal negligence charges against sitting governors or mayors are historically rare. While there are ongoing calls for investigation, the path from investigation requests to formal charges typically involves multiple steps and significant legal hurdles, particularly for sitting elected officials who generally have various immunities and protections in the course of performing their official duties.