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MANIFOLD
Will Manifold complete this jigsaw puzzle? (MPP#7)
17
Ṁ310Ṁ3k
resolved Nov 21
Resolved as
78%

6500 pieces and image preview disabled.

https://puzzle.aggie.io/GCUqQs

Resolves 100% YES, minus 1% for every day it takes Manifold to complete the puzzle linked above, according to the timer on the puzzle page. So if it takes 14 days, I resolve at 100 - 14% = 86% YES.

Words of caution before trading: This is the 7th puzzle Manifold has done, none have taken more than 8 days to complete, and there is at least one person on Manifold with the means and motivation to complete the puzzle as quickly as they want. I've also marked this non-predictive.

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Does it make sense to invert the resulting percent as (100 - #days)%? The question is whether Manifold will complete the puzzle, but completing it faster means a lower resolution percent, despite Manifold having done "better" at completing it.

(also I only lost 16 mana on the last one and got much more than 16 mana worth of fun out of seeing the clever solution! so no refund necessary for me)

@georgeyw That does sound a bit better. I'm going to flip it, please re-bid quickly.

@nicwest06d6 @roma @DanielParker @JimHays @ThrowingTofu @georgeyw @jmj @ZalenZed @JavierChavez @AshleyZhu @alleycat @nickten @4rthurRainbow @bug I feel bad about the last puzzle. If any of you want, reply here and I can at least managram you what you lost there.

@Capresis Very kind. Not necessary

@Capresis I appreciate the offer, I wont say no, would help get the networth on track.

@Capresis oh, thank you :)

@Capresis That was priced in, no problem :)

@Capresis I sold shares before, but thanks for the offer. very kind of you

@Capresis thanks for the offer bud, but I'm with the others, it was always a possibility.