The bet concerns whether Mamdani will continue to support policies requiring children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age, including children of non-Arabic origin.
I acknowledge that Mamdani currently supports these policies; the question is whether he will abandon them.
The market will be resolved to NO as soon as Mamdani is no longer the mayor of New York (whether due to losing an election or leaving the position for any other reason, even temporarily), at which point he would no longer be able to implement these policies: provided that he continuously supported them during his time as mayor.
If Zohran Kwame Mamdani declares that he is not supporting such policies, the resolution will go to YES. The market will also resolve to YES if he declares that he is abandoning such policies during his time as mayor. The source for thiese declarations must be his official X account (https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani) or his official mayoral channel (if one is created in the future).
Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Temporarily leaving" does not include:
Sick leave
Vacation
"Temporarily leaving" only applies if:
Mamdani is deported (even if he later returns)
A court order forces him to resign (even if he later successfully appeals)
The key criterion is whether he remains the acting mayor during his tenure and continues to support the policies during that time.
Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may be resolved based on documented evidence of the policies requiring children to learn Arabic numerals. or if they have been unofficially discontinued.
Resolution can also occur if any New York acting eligible official declares that such policies are no longer being implemented in the city (without jokes or mistakes), not solely Mamdani himself.
Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mamdani publicly denying the rumors about these policies would be sufficient for the market to resolve to YES.
For any options added under "Other" by anyone, resolutions may be made to early-NO at any time once (after manifold updates) a consensus is reached through:
Manifold voting, or
Credible American media reporting.
I have allocated my funds to those additional options added under "Other," and I believe if all of them can be independently resolved to early-NO if they concern matters unrelated to the main question and are resolved by consensus or are obviously resolved before the market's expiration. Currently I believe Manifold may add updates so that resolving these options to early-NO would not affect the YES or NO outcomes.
Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Options added under "Other" will be resolved to early-NO (or potentially N/A) after Manifold platform updates allow for this, once consensus is reached through Manifold voting or credible American media reporting. This applies to options that are unrelated to the main question and can be independently resolved before market expiration.
1,000People are also trading
Yes, I agree that the intention includes that it would be sufficient for Mamdani to publicly deny these rumors for the market to resolve to YES.
For all options added by anyone under "Other," resolutions may be made to N/A at any time as soon as a consensus on the answer is reached for those added options, for example through Manifold Voting or with credible American media reporting.
@CancelTheBorders I think neither more than one YES resolution nor early resolution is possible in a dependent aka linked MC market.
@CancelTheBorders I also don't think you can resolve a single option to N/A without resolving the entire market.
@4fa Assume that those additional options can be independently resolved to early-NO if they contain something that is, by consensus or obviously, resolved before the market’s expiration.
I currently believe there might be updates so that resolving them to early-NO would not affect the YES or NO outcomes.
But if resolving them early could risk the final resolution, they should not be resolved until Mamdani either loses his mayoral position or declares that he is not supporting those policies.
@CancelTheBorders Just to reiterate, you will either be able to resolve all answers N/A here, or none at all. There is no in between.
You will not be able to resolve one answer N/A here and resolve the others YES and NO with the current setup.
With this setup, they will all need to be resolved at the same time. You will not be able to resolve some early.
Is this the intended setup?
@Quroe this market will exist after the updates, I believe. the updates may add early-NO actually, not N/A
@CancelTheBorders If I added the market answer, "after 2025's Thanksgiving or never," how would this market resolve?
You would not be able to remove that market answer if I added it based on how this market is set up.
@Quroe I agree with your concerns for now, but as you can see in the description, only YES and NO are the main outcomes, ..
Other options I believe will be able to resolve, those the additional options independently to N/A or early-NO when that becomes possible.
The market’s expiration is 2100, - as long as Mamdani remains the acting mayor during his tenure and continues to support the policies during that time.
If you bet Yes and it wins, buying at the current 2% price means your MANA would grow by about 50×.
@MachiNi In any..
Here is 50× written with Greek numerals (the classical Greek alphanumeric system):
ΝΕʹ
Breakdown:
Ν = 50
The ʹ (keraia) marks it as a numeral.
So 50× expressed in Greek numerals would be:
🟩 ΝΕʹ ×
@MachiNi The reason is that there are too many rumors about Mamdani actively supporting these policies. Therefore, the resolution depends on whether Mamdani officially or personally declares that he no longer supports or is abandoning them.
@MachiNi The reason is that there are too many rumors about Mamdani actively supporting these policies.
Therefore, the resolution depends solely on whether Mamdani officially or personally declares that he does not support or is abandoning them.
The market will may be resolved based on documented evidence of existing policies or if they have been unofficially discontinued.
Resolution is focusing on whether Mamdani officially or personally declares that he no longer supports or is abandoning the policies requiring children to learn Arabic numerals as an acting mayor. It may also be sufficient if any New York acting eligible official declares that such policies are no longer being implemented in the city (without jokes or mistakes).
@CancelTheBorders What policies are you referring to? What do you mean by ‘require’ and ‘early age’? There may be rumors (I haven’t heard) but to me this sounds like a riff on Jonah Ryan’s Muslim math in Veep.
@MachiNi a version with ages and a brief policy note:
> 🧒 Age 5–6 (Kindergarten): The official start
In New York, this is when all children are formally taught to recognize and write arabic numerals under the state early-math curriculum (New York State learning standards for kindergarten).
@MachiNi I believe it would be sufficient for Mamdani to publicly deny these rumors for the market to resolve to Yes.
Temporarily leaving does not include sick leave or vacation. It only applies if he is deported (even if he later returns) or if a court order forces him to resign (even if he later successfully appeals). The intention is to determine whether he is still the acting mayor and, during that time, whether he continues to support such policies.