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MANIFOLD
Who will come in second place (popular vote) in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucus?
6
Ṁ200Ṁ105
resolved Oct 11
ResolvedN/A
22%
Donald Trump
45%
Ron DeSantis
22%
Nikki Haley
11%
Tim Scott

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Apologies for the early resolution (apparently I can’t edit the description now). I realized too late that I hadn’t included the standard Other option that would allow me to add another candidate if the circumstances shifted. My exclusion of Vivek Ramaswamy was also arbitrary; I had forgotten to make the basic check of how he was polling (as it turns out, FiveThirtyEight had him roughly tied with Sen. Scott).

Below is my corrected market, for those who still trust me to adjudicate properly (it’s certainly understandable if they now don’t 😖).