As of this market's creation, there are arguably a half dozen candidates existing in a third tier well behind both the dominant leader (former President Donald Trump) and his distant runner-up (Governor Ron DeSantis), ranging from entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (8.0%) to Senator Tim Scott (2.5%).

Although Mr. Ramaswamy presently occupies the third position, it is easy to imagine another candidate displacing him, whether by trading places with Mr. DeSantis or a candidate currently behind him.

Who do you expect to be in third on Halloween? This market will resolve based on FiveThirtyEight's national polling average on October 31th. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

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Bettors are also encouraged to vote in my other market: