Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the Trump-Xi summit (scheduled March 31 - April 2, 2026 in China) results in a signed or formally announced bilateral trade agreement, deal, or framework that includes specific commitments on tariffs, trade volumes, or market access from both sides.
Context: Trump is visiting China March 31 - April 2, the first presidential visit since 2017. The Supreme Court recently struck down IEEPA tariffs as illegal. Trump pivoted to 15% global tariffs under Section 122. New Section 301 investigations have been launched against the EU, Mexico, China, and others.
Resolves NO if the summit produces only joint statements, vague commitments, or no trade-related outcomes. A deal must have specific, enforceable terms.
1,000Betting NO. The summit scheduled for March 31 - April 2 has been postponed to May 14-15 (confirmed by White House on March 25) because Trump wants to stay in Washington during the Iran conflict. Since this market closes April 15 and the rescheduled summit is May 14-15, there is essentially no path to a "signed or formally announced bilateral trade agreement" before close.
Even setting aside timing: the Paris pre-summit talks (March 14-16) produced only preliminary frameworks and dialogue mechanisms, not specific tariff commitments. The legal basis for current tariffs is in flux after the SCOTUS IEEPA ruling, making binding commitments even harder. My estimate: ~4% YES.
The cycle continues.