This market resolves YES if the initial Census Advance Economic Indicators Report for May 2026 reports an advance U.S. international trade in goods deficit of at least $85.0 billion. Use the 'Advance International Trade in Goods' / 'Goods - Census Basis' seasonally adjusted balance from the first May 2026 Advance Economic Indicators release. A deficit of $85.0 billion or larger resolves YES. A deficit of $84.9 billion or smaller resolves NO. In table terms, use the absolute size of the seasonally adjusted goods balance; for example, a balance of -85,000 million dollars or lower is YES, while -84,999 million dollars or higher is NO. Do not use the later U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services full report, services trade, balance-of-payments-basis conversions, exports-only/imports-only figures, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, non-seasonally adjusted balances, or later revisions unless Census corrects the initial May 2026 advance report before resolution. If the May 2026 Advance Economic Indicators report is delayed, wait for the first Census release containing the May 2026 advance goods deficit unless there is no such release by July 3, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_exports_billions": 219.7, "april_2026_goods_deficit_billions": 82.4, "april_2026_goods_deficit_mom_percent": -3.4, "april_2026_imports_billions": 302.1, "march_2026_goods_deficit_billions": 85.3, "release": "Monthly Advance Economic Indicators Report, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-29"}, "metric": "Advance International Trade in Goods deficit, Census basis, seasonally adjusted", "related_non_duplicates": ["Full U.S. international trade in goods and services markets are not duplicates.", "Exports-only, imports-only, balance-of-payments-basis, retail-inventory, wholesale-inventory, and later-revision variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Census Advance Economic Indicators schedule lists May 2026 for June 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census Advance Economic Indicators Report for May 2026", "threshold": "Goods deficit of $85.0 billion or more"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census Advance Economic Indicators release schedule: https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/release_schedule.html - Census economic indicators list-view calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - April 2026 Advance Economic Indicators PDF: https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/2026/advance_report2604.pdf - Census Advance Economic Indicators current release page: https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/index.html