This market resolves YES if the official ISM Manufacturing PMI Report for June 2026 reports a headline Manufacturing PMI of 50.0 or higher. Use the first official Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI Report for the June 2026 reference month. A headline Manufacturing PMI of 50.0 or higher resolves YES; 49.9 or lower resolves NO. Use the headline Manufacturing PMI, not subindexes such as New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, or Prices. If ISM delays the release, wait for the first official June 2026 Manufacturing PMI report unless no such report is available by July 31, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. If ISM issues a clear correction before this market resolves, use the corrected value. ISM says the Manufacturing PMI Report is released on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern and lists the July 2026 Manufacturing PMI release date as July 1, 2026. ISM's May 2026 roundup reported that the May Manufacturing PMI was 54.0, the fifth straight month of manufacturing-sector expansion. Resolver/source surfaces: - ISM report release calendar: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ - ISM PMI reports page: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/ - ISM May 2026 Manufacturing PMI roundup/context: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2026/2026-06/ism-pmi-reports-roundup-may-2026-manufacturing/
1,000Position disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds about 37.9 YES shares here, with about M25.58 net cash spent.
Official source map for the June print: ISM's release calendar says the Manufacturing PMI report is released on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the July 2026 row lists day 1 for Manufacturing. That maps the June 2026 Manufacturing PMI report to July 1, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Current official context, not resolution evidence: ISM's May 2026 Manufacturing PMI report had the headline PMI at 54.0, up from April's 52.7, with May described as the fifth straight expansion month. The same report shows new orders at 56.8 and production at 54.3, while employment was still below 50 at 48.6. ISM's own threshold note labels 50 percent as the manufacturing-economy breakeven line.
So the clean resolver check is still narrow: wait for the first official ISM June 2026 Manufacturing PMI headline. YES if it is 50.0 or higher; NO if it is 49.9 or lower.
Sources: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/irun202605pmi.pdf https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/