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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 US average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ13
Jun 5
50%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for May 2026 reports that average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by at least 0.3% from April 2026 to May 2026, seasonally adjusted. Use the first BLS Employment Situation Summary for the May 2026 reference month, specifically the month-over-month percent change for average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. A reported +0.3% or higher resolves YES; +0.2% or lower, including zero or a negative reading, resolves NO. Use the first BLS May 2026 Employment Situation release, not later monthly revisions, unless BLS issues a correction before this market resolves. If the release is delayed, wait for the first BLS May 2026 Employment Situation release unless no such release is available by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. BLS currently schedules the Employment Situation for May 2026 for Friday, June 5, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The April 2026 release reported average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents, or 0.2%, and says the May release is scheduled for June 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Resolver/source surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation Summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm - BLS Employment Situation PDF: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS 2026 release calendar: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm

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