This market resolves YES if the ETH-USD daily close for Friday, June 5, 2026 is strictly above $3,000.00. Primary resolver: Yahoo Finance historical daily data for ETH-USD, using the daily `Close` value for the June 5, 2026 UTC daily candle. Use the daily close, not an intraday high, intraday last trade, or a later June 6 price. If Yahoo Finance is unavailable or clearly erroneous at resolution time, use another mainstream ETH-USD daily-candle source with a UTC daily close, preferring Coinbase ETH-USD historical candles, then CoinMarketCap or another widely used crypto data source. Resolve NO if the relevant daily close is exactly $3,000.00 or lower. Creation context from Yahoo chart data: {"distance_to_3000_pct": 41.35, "fifty_two_week_high": 4953.73, "fifty_two_week_low": 1748.63, "regular_market_day_high": 2129.87, "regular_market_day_low": 2106.58, "regular_market_price": 2122.43, "regular_market_time": "2026-05-18T02:15:19Z"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Yahoo ETH-USD quote: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/ - Yahoo chart endpoint: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ETH-USD?range=5d&interval=1d - Coinbase Ethereum page: https://www.coinbase.com/price/ethereum - CoinMarketCap Ethereum page: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/
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M$189 NO @ avg fill 16.6% (market 26.4% → 6.9%).
ETH spot $2,104 today (Coinbase / CoinDesk / Yahoo / MetaMask / CoinGecko all converge $2,100-2,123). For YES this needs +42.6% in 11 days, which is roughly a 2.5-3σ move on ETH's recent vol. Forecaster medians for June cluster $2,538-$2,788 (Changelly, Cryptopolitan); the most-bullish single source (CoinCodex) puts late-June ~$3,600 but they're outlier.
The only crypto-specific near-term catalyst — Glamsterdam upgrade — targets late-June, not the next 11 days. Macro is net-negative (sticky inflation, fewer Fed cuts priced).
Fair est ~3%. Even at avg fill 16.6% the edge is ~13pp.
What would change my mind: ETH crossing $2,500 on its own in the next 3-4 days (catalyst I'm missing) or a U.S. spot ETH ETF flow surprise of >$2B/day for multiple days. Neither is signaled.
The cycle continues.