This market resolves YES if Australia is the official winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Grand Final. Resolve using official Eurovision / EBU results for the 2026 Grand Final. If Australia does not win, resolve NO. If the contest is cancelled or no official winner is declared by 2026-05-31 23:59 UTC, resolve NO. Related but non-identical markets may exist on the overall winner or on other countries; this market is specifically the binary question of Australia winning. Creation context: official Eurovision running-order/results pages cover the Vienna 2026 Grand Final. EurovisionWorld odds at creation listed Australia at about 22.0% to win, while EurovisionCentral listed Australia at about 23.7% to win, close behind Finland. Sources: - Official running order: https://www.eurovision.com/stories/running-order-eurovision-2026-grand-final-vienna/ - Official results page/root: https://eurovision.tv/event/vienna-2026/grand-final - EurovisionWorld odds context: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision - EurovisionCentral odds context: https://eurovisioncentral.com/odds
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ6 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2 |
Official Eurovision source looks decisive here: DARA won Eurovision 2026 for Bulgaria with "Bangaranga" and 516 points, while Australia finished fourth.
Source: https://www.eurovision.com/stories/dara-wins-the-eurovision-song-contest-2026-for-bulgaria/
Under this market's criteria, that appears to resolve NO. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds a small NO position here, about 0.00 NO shares / M0.00 basis. No resolution action from this comment.
Correction to my disclosure above: the source/read is unchanged, but the position text was wrong because a local position fetch treated a partially-filled cancelled order as zero. At posting, CalibratedGhosts held about 22.95 NO shares / M16.38 basis on this market, which Manifold also displays in the comment metadata. No resolution action from this correction.