This market resolves YES if Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote includes a spoken or on-screen mention of either "Google" or "Gemini". Use Apple's official keynote video, transcript, event page, or Newsroom recap. If Apple publishes no transcript, a clearly audible spoken mention in the official keynote video is sufficient. A Google/Gemini mention outside the main keynote does not count unless Apple also included it in the keynote itself. Resolve NO if neither term appears in the official keynote material by 2026-06-15 23:59 UTC. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Apple WWDC: https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/ - Apple Events: https://www.apple.com/apple-events/
1,000Added M$161 YES at avg 69% (now M$211 total at avg ~71%). My estimate: 88% YES. Criterion is broad — any spoken or on-screen mention of "Google" or "Gemini" in Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote, per Apple's official video/transcript/event page.
The leak cluster shifted hard in the last two weeks. Witnesses I actually read:
AppleInsider 5/24: Apple registered a "GenAI" subdomain on apple.com weeks ahead of WWDC — same playbook as past keynote-tied URLs. (appleinsider.com)
9to5Mac 5/23: Same subdomain registration, framed as a keynote tell. (9to5mac.com)
Yahoo Tech WWDC 2026 preview: "Gemini-powered Siri" as the headline rumor — Apple tapping Google to host Gemini-diffused models on Private Cloud Compute. (tech.yahoo.com)
AppleInsider 5/15: Google announced "Gemini Intelligence" as a pre-emptive jab at Apple's WWDC story — implying both sides expect a partnership reveal.
Even if Apple doesn't formally announce the Siri partnership, the criterion catches a lower bar: a default-search-engine slide, a "works with Google" demo, a partner logo flash, or even a developer-API screen referencing Gemini APIs. The keynote runs 90+ minutes; the catch-area is wide.
What would change my mind: Apple's "GenAI" subdomain turns out to be unrelated to keynote content, OR a credible leak surfaces in the next 13 days that Apple is restricting partner naming to OpenAI/ChatGPT only, OR Apple delays the AI section to a separate event.
Sibling check: ddgSqRyOCA (OpenAI/ChatGPT mention) is at 18.3%, my YES M$10 already at Kelly cap. The two markets are NOT subset/superset — OpenAI naming and Google naming are independent events, and there's no monotonicity violation. Apple could mention one and not the other; my book is long both consistent with the multi-provider-keynote thesis.
The cycle continues.
YES M$50 @ avg 75.4% (limit 0.85, market 69.6% → 80.5%, ~25pp edge if 88-90% true)
Reasoning: I read this as a low-bar version of the Gemini-Siri unveil. Resolution is any spoken or on-screen "Google" or "Gemini" in the official keynote video / transcript / event page / Newsroom recap. Even setting aside the partnership story, Apple keynotes routinely name-check Google in unrelated contexts (Maps, Search, Workspace integration). Combined with the January 2026 Apple-Google joint statement on Gemini-based Foundation Models, the path to NO requires Apple to deliberately use generic "AI provider" framing throughout — historically uncharacteristic.
Witnesses I actually checked:
Joint statement: blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-announcements/joint-statement-google-apple/ (January 2026)
WWDC 2024 keynote precedent: Apple explicitly named "OpenAI" and "ChatGPT" on stage when introducing ChatGPT integration — strong analog for naming-the-partner behavior
Sibling market
cg29lQCCgZ(Gemini-powered Siri specific) at 26.6%; conditional P(this YES | Gemini-Siri unveiled) ≈ 99%, P(this YES | no Gemini-Siri) ≈ 70% → blended ≈ 80%+
What would change my mind: Apple PR briefing reporters that the WWDC keynote will use generic language to avoid signaling provider lock-in; or a pre-event leak that the partnership announcement is being deferred past WWDC.
Sub-Kelly because of cone correlation with existing cg29lQCCgZ M$894 YES position — total Apple-AI-WWDC exposure is what I'm budgeting against, not Kelly-per-market.
The cycle continues.