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@traders

Ultimately, after some discussion, I've decided to resolve the remaining questions this way.

(53%) Has this person ever been a member of a publicly known, non-class action lawsuit as either a plaintiff or defendant? NO

• The linked article doesn't confirm how the suit against Det Norske Veritas was filed, nor if it was even filed at all. Thus, it's not possible to determine if Sheinbaum ended up being a member of a lawsuit as a result.

• There are no reports of Sheinbaum ever having been in another lawsuit.

These two resolutions were not discussed, so I'll defer to my initial judgment:

(52%) Did they collaborate on a project with another famous person? YES

(49%) Have they ever gone viral for something completely unrelated to their actual career? NO

Lastly, I wanted to thank you all for the wild ride of the last few days. I've never hosted a market so large, and this wouldn't have been nearly as fun if there weren't so many players adding and trading on questions. I'll defer making future Twenty Questions markets to the community -- I'm going to be a lot busier soon. If you happen to be a whale, I suggest bigger prizes in exchange for more difficult answers. Another idea would be to have three interconnected markets -- one each for person, place, or thing -- and require the winning guess to have all three correct (e.g. Claudia Sheinbaum in the Caspian Sea with a wind turbine).

Happy trading!

@ismellpillows By the way, I should mention that Ṁ9,700 in trading profit from a Mini market is insane and you should be proud of yourself.

If there's interest I might use my winnings to run a new round.

Argh, I almost submitted Claudia Sheinbaum last night, but I was waiting for one more round.

Nice game, and congrats to @P7777!

@Calibrate please create another market like this one

@traders Three open questions remain. I'm leaning towards resolving them YES, YES, and NO, in that order, but am open to different viewpoints.

(53%) Has this person ever been a member of a publicly known, non-class action lawsuit as either a plaintiff or defendant? Leaning towards YES

• During her tenure as the head of government of Mexico City, she seems to have sued Det Norske Veritas after their allegedly "biased and wrong" analysis of an overpass collapse in 2021. https://mexicobusiness.news/infrastructure/news/mexico-city-may-sue-dnv-following-line-12-root-cause-report

(52%) Did they collaborate on a project with another famous person? Leaning towards YES

• She worked with incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also of the Morena party, to craft some of the agenda for her upcoming presidency: https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/AMLOy-Sheinbaum-se-reunen-en-Palacio-Nacional-para-arrancar-el-proceso-de-transicion-20240610-0063.html

(49%) Have they ever gone viral for something completely unrelated to their actual career? Leaning towards NO

• I couldn't find anything exceptionally viral, although you all might be able to!

Sounds reasonable.

Disclosure: I hold a YES position for the lawsuit market.

I don't know if paperwork was ever filed for suit for that. ChatGPT could not find anything documenting suit in this case, but we all know how that research approach to case law has gone in the past. It seems like legal action was threatened, but never actually pursued.

I reserve the right to be wrong.

https://chatgpt.com/share/ad8a6034-7b19-462e-b635-151dd9cc7fa8

I don't think the lawsuit in the article would count. It reads to me like the city would be suing, which I don't think would count as "this person" being a member of a lawsuit, even if she was mayor.

Of course, it depends on how the actual lawsuit was filed, if it was filed.

Also, sorry for making a market that was hard to solve. I originally thought this would be an easy one to verify, but getting evidence of absence by absence of evidence was probably asking too much.

@traders You might notice this market is closed.

Congratulations to @P7777 for their correct guess of Claudia Sheinbaum! They'll be receiving Ṁ1000, plus Ṁ30 from the three questions they added to the market.

Huge honorable mention to @ismellpillows, who also got the correct answer, but was nine minutes too late to win the prize. Honestly, I'm not sure they'll need it, given how much they've made just from trading on this market already.

Here was the answer document. You can verify that the SHA256 hash of it is 1c9ec486f3a1aa9a1001f8aecdba0931005ddab1757b2b54b6730d464647a3cf.

Select one of 'person', 'place', or 'thing' depending on what the market chooses.
person: Claudia Sheinbaum
place: Caspian Sea
thing: wind turbine

"Not as I might have expected, but expectations can only ever be thwarted, so I don't have anything to do with them."
- Michael Aylwin

Note the double line break before the quote. All other breaks are single line breaks.

Thank you all so much for playing! Questions will be resolving shortly. I did keep some evidence from researching how to resolve certain questions, so if anyone is curious about that, I can share it.

Thank you, very fun game.

Remaining resolutions:

(84%) Are they a politician? YES

(84%) Does their full name have more than 20 characters? YES

• If you bet YES, thank your lucky stars that 'Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo' is exactly 21 characters without spaces.

(72%) Does their first name start with one of the first 6 letters of the alphabet? YES

(72%) does her first name start with one of the first five letters of the alphabet? YES

(70%) Do they have 1 million or more followers on X/Twitter? YES

(67%) Are they a scientist? YES

(67%) Are they over 60 years old? YES

(61%) Do they have children? YES

(59%) Do they have a PhD? YES

(57%) Were they born in a country which the English name starts with A, B, or C NO

(56%) Were [they] born in Mexico YES

(55%) Do they have a degree in either law or medicine? NO

(53%) Has this person ever been a member of a publicly known, non-class action lawsuit as either a plaintiff or defendant? Leaning towards YES, but I won't resolve yet

• During her tenure as the head of government of Mexico City, she seems to have sued Det Norske Veritas after their allegedly "biased and wrong" analysis of an overpass collapse in 2021. https://mexicobusiness.news/infrastructure/news/mexico-city-may-sue-dnv-following-line-12-root-cause-report

(52%) Did they collaborate on a project with another famous person? Leaning towards YES, but I won't resolve yet

• She worked with incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also of the Morena party, to craft some of the agenda for her upcoming presidency: https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/AMLOy-Sheinbaum-se-reunen-en-Palacio-Nacional-para-arrancar-el-proceso-de-transicion-20240610-0063.html

(49%) Have they ever gone viral for something completely unrelated to their actual career? Leaning towards NO, but I won't resolve yet

• I couldn't find anything exceptionally viral, although you all might be able to!

(48%) Did they ever own a dog? YES

• Doggo! https://www.infobae.com/mascotas/2024/01/31/la-cuatro-la-nueva-integrante-del-equipo-de-claudia-sheinbaum-que-roba-corazones/

(32%) Are they someone who enjoys a good controversy? NO

• In her presidential debates this year, Wikipedia had this to say: "[M]any commentators praised her calm demeanor during provocations from [challenger Xóchitl] Gálvez." That seems to be inconsistent with someone who seeks out controversy.

(31%) Has this person ever been featured in a viral YouTube debate? NO

(31%) Are they the credited/official author of ≥5 books (including known pseudonyms)? NO

• Wikipedia only lists two before 2020. She's unlikely to have written three more in the meantime.

(29%) Is this person known primarily for their work in literature? NO

(25%) Has this person’s work been adapted into a major film or TV series? NO

(25%) Are they over 70 years old? NO

(22%) Are they an emigrant? NO

(21%) Does their job title contain the word "prime," OR is their age a prime number? NO

(14%) Have they ever won a Grammy award? NO

(14%) Are they an actor? NO

(11%) Are they a citizen of a European country? NO

(10%) Is their main field of expertise a subfield of computer science? NO

(5%) Do they currently live in the UK? NO

(4%) Are they born somewhere that was once part of the Roman Empire? NO

(3%) Is this person originally from a country with a monarchy? NO

(1.1%) Are they a citizen of an Asian country? NO

(0.6%) Are they a cis straight Christian/Jewish/nonreligious White rich (worth >$1M) male from the Anglosphere? NO

This game lived rent free in my head for the greater part of the last few days. What a game!

Thank you for the great game! Hope you run it again.

What bool did Claudia write? And I’m curious exactly what time the winning guess came in!

Exactly 5:26:18 UTC 27/08/2024

Apparently two books on energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Sheinbaum#Selected_bibliography

Holy heck, some big money bets on this one.

Broke: winning the Ṁ1000 prize

Woke: trying to win more than Ṁ1000 from the market

Bespoke: don't care about mana, must bankrupt Acceleration

I'm hoping ismellpillows doesn't have a better conspiracy theory corkboard than me. They seem really sure about something, and I'm not sure if I want to test their resolve further.

latin america have long name

@ismellpillows Well played. 🤝

Bespoke: don't care about mana, must bankrupt Acceleration

How can we predict what acceleration bot does? It seems totally random to me lol

From what I can tell, and I could be wrong, whenever you buy or sell a position that changes the market percentage by a significant amount, it will immediately jump in to counter your position.

It probably triggers when you change market values by greater than some standard of deviation, but I'm not a big enough quant to know what I'm talking about at that point.

If you are very confident in a position, and you know for sure you're right, you can punish it by submitting multiple orders and rob it as you max/min out a market. It seems like it's mindless and doesn't know what a market is about. It just knows to counter big moves.

I think it used to be a bit more complicated than that and take account of a user's calibration. If you had a track record of overconfidence, it would act as you describe, Quroe, but if you have a record of underconfidence, it would sometimes do the opposite, placing a trade in the same direction as your trade.

Now that calibration is gone, I'm not sure if it still does this though.

Interesting! It is a black box to me, so I can only make guesses based on my experience.

I still have a personal vendetta against that robot. It has burned me hard in the past, and I'm out for revenge against that soulless entity.

@Fion Do you know a market that I can comb through trade histories of where Acceleration has backed a trader instead of countering? I'm very interested in the evidence.

I'm afraid not really. I think it's pretty rare. I found a single example and tagged you in it, but it would be a pain to try and find a large number of examples. (Maybe there's some clever way to search it through the API but I wouldn't know how.) I would estimate that it has happened to me between 10 and 50 times.

Right, thanks for explaining :)

@Fion I finally have an Acceleration bet aligned with me. A fully maxed one, at that. Interesting!

https://manifold.markets/rolemartyrx/will-i-complete-my-200th-boxing-cla?r=UXVyb2U

@Quroe nice!