Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2101 (the end of the 21st century), the Clay Mathematics Institute (or its official successor organization) awards a Millennium Prize for the solution of any of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, and at least one recipient officially accepts the associated $1,000,000 cash prize (or their portion of it, if the prize is split).

The market resolves to NO if either:

• December 31, 2100 passes without any individual or entity accepting a Millennium Prize; or

• All seven Millennium Prize Problems have been officially resolved and, for every prize awarded, all recipients decline the associated prize money, making a future YES resolution impossible.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Definition of Acceptance: Acceptance is defined as the recipient(s) not declining the prize money, or the money being successfully transferred to the recipient (or an organization/charity designated by the recipient, rather than the Clay Mathematics Institute reclaiming the funds due to a rejection).

• Prior Cases: Grigori Perelman's 2010 refusal of the Poincaré conjecture prize does not count toward a YES resolution.

• Pending Claims: If a solution is claimed but the award has not been officially conferred by the CMI and accepted by the recipient prior to January 1, 2101, it will not count towards a YES.

• Source of Truth: Official announcements from the Clay Mathematics Institute or reports in leading scientific journals (such as Nature or Science).

Background

The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) established the seven Millennium Prize Problems in 2000, pledging a $1 million reward for the first correct, peer-reviewed solution to each.

The only problem officially solved to date is the Poincaré conjecture, resolved by Grigori Perelman. However, Perelman declined the $1 million prize in 2010. In September 2026, OpenAI claimed that an internal AI system had solved the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, but the company stated they would decline the Millennium Prize if offered.

The remaining problems, including the Riemann Hypothesis, P vs NP, and the Yang-Mills mass gap, remain officially unsolved, leaving the $1 million cash prizes unclaimed.