I have worded the question carefully, but the general thing I am asking is if there will be a significant third party run in 2024 (something akin to a Eugene V. Debs). Resolves as "YES" if a single candidate that is neither a reigistered Republican or Democrat wins 5% of the national popular vote or some greater amount.
National popular vote is defined as all votes cast by citizens for electors in the 2024 election. Furthermore, even so these votes are technically for "electors" and not for the candidate themselves, a vote is defined as being "for" a candidate if that vote is cast for a slate of Electoral College electors that have pledge to vote for that candidate.
Candidates that run with "No Party" affiliation do count, as do those with "Independent" affiliation, "Libertarian," "Green," etc. However, for the market to resolve as "YES" a single candidate that is not backed by either the Repuiblican or Democratic parties needs to win at least 5% (i.e. the Libertarian candidate winning 3% and the Greens winning 2% does not resolve in a "YES").