By Jan 1, 2024, will Richard Hanania publicly admit to
1) directing journalists to any of the claims made
2) providing evidence, such as account names or email information
in the following article:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/richard-hanania-white-supremacist-pseudonym-richard-hoste_n_64c93928e4b021e2f295e817
I think galaxy-brained plots are rare. By default people don't do things; things require work, and secrets/conspiracies more so.
Note this market tracks not the probability that Hanania revealed info to the media, but that he will admit to it - and regardless of what you think the base rate of successful plots are, the base rate of revealed plots is low.
@evergreenemily The fact that he was once involved in this milieu was never a secret, and he even wrote some very obvious roman à clef stories about it, for example (from May): https://www.richardhanania.com/p/ron-unz-confronts-the-far-right
@evergreenemily I was much more surprised to discover, as a result of his response to this story, that he is now pro-immigration. Perhaps his views genuinely have become less dreadful, albeit he is still clearly bigoted and obnoxious and it's a very low bar in this case.