MANIFOLD
Will I retire this year? And how will that affect my well-being?
25
Ṁ2.2kṀ3.9k
2028
1.8%
Retire, well-being [0, 0.4)
4%
Retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)
17%
Retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)
26%
Retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)
18%
Retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)
5%
Retire, well-being [0.8, 1)
2%
Does not retire, well-being [0, 0.4)
4%
Does not retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)
8%
Does not retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)
7%
Does not retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)
5%
Does not retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)
2%
Does not retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

I am in my late 20s and I am strongly considering retirement this year. I estimate the odds of this happening at around 50%. If I do retire, it is very likely it will happen around May or June of this year. I would likely live a nomadic lifestyle (at first) and spend a large portion of my time living in Asia, where the cost of living is less by a factor of about 2-4 depending on the country and city. I visited a couple times last year and had a great time.

Currently I work as a Software Engineer for a tech company and spend about 4% of my net worth annually in my current location. I am invested primarily in US equities (via S&P 500) but do have some smaller allocations to international equities, fixed income, managed futures, and cryptocurrency.

My reasons for wanting early retirement include:

  • Enjoying my own projects and leisure time more than work in general

  • Not liking my manager at my current position

  • Having likely sufficient net worth

  • AGI soon???

  • Research suggesting that early retirees are generally happier as a result (i.e. I asked GPT5.2 on deep research mode and that's what it told me)

  • Not having other responsibilities which tie me to my current location, which gives me the option to explore

Some reasons I may not retire include

  • Anxiety about finances and variance of net worth changes due to market price movements

  • It may be possible to find a better job than my current one.

  • My current job gives me significant remote work flexibility

  • Working increases the EV of my net worth compared to the alternative (I think). Having a higher net worth may open up other options that I had not previously considered

  • I may find a partner in my current location, which would make me more inclined to continue working

To incentivize asking questions and understanding my situation better, I will first reply privately via DM to anyone who asks a question in the comments (if I am comfortable answering). No less than 24 hours after sending the DM I may optionally post the response publicly in the comments.

Retirement happens if I no longer have my current job (voluntarily or not) before EOY 2026 and I do not work as a full time employee for a company which I did not create myself for at least until the end of 2027. Again, if I do retire, it is very likely to happen in May or June this year.

Refer to this spreadsheet for the well-being scores which will be used to resolve the market. It will resolve based on the average of all finalized entries under column B at the time of market close. Higher numbers mean I feel generally better.

I will do my best to update it daily until market close, but may miss and back-fill days. I will probably not become totally inactive but if I do mods can resolve to whatever the average of all valid (i.e. in [0, 1]) entries in the spreadsheet in column B exist at the time of close. If I haven't announced retirement and become inactive, just assume that I haven't, because if I did I'd definitely remember to update here.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Holy poggers

Buy $10,000 worth of SPY calls for early 2028 with strike price of 1200 then retire.

@jim my analysis does suggest otm calls are a good deal but I do not trade options

@jim at least, not yet 🤔 I probably shouldn't

@Cactus well it's easy if you feel like it

bought Ṁ5 YES

Why retire at such an age? Do you mean "taking a break" instead?

Also do you count do things which make you money without being employed as being retired?

@ItsMe thanks for the questions, will send a DM. I think the answer to this one is (sort of) in the description tho

Public release of DM sent to @ItsMe

Hello and thanks for participating in my market

Yeah basically in the description I said something like it's still retirement if I work for myself, forgot exact wording.

As for whether it's just a break or retirement; it's kinda hard for me to see myself going back voluntarily. I guess since I don't really have an intention to return it seems more like retirement to me than a break.

>AGI soon???

lmao

>(i.e. I asked GPT5.2 on deep research mode and that's what it told me)

lmaooo

@ChurlishGambit Manifold said so.

This makes me wish the options could be displayed as a 2D matrix

@SorenJ would recommend sort by "oldest" or alphabetical sort as a sensible alternative

Do you work for money over passion? Is work as a software engineer just means to am end or do you enjoy it? Is the difference in enjoyment between your own projects and work significant? How long do you think you'll have that manager if you stay?

@Velaris thanks, these are good questions. I left you a DM with my answers

Public release of DM to @Velaris

Thanks for commenting! Here's my answer for you

In the beginning of my career, I very much priorotized money over enjoyment in my choice of job. I chose my career path as a means to an end initially and I still see this as being a bit true. I had one job (my first) that I really enjoyed working at but sadly left to pursue higher salary, not knowing that most other jobs were worse. It's kind of mixed

As I became more financially stable I started to value lifestyle more over salary. I do enjoy coding and the difference between personal work and job work is very significant. Hard to estimate how long I'd have my current manager for if I stayed, but based on his prior job tenure info on LinkedIn let's just make a central estimate of about 1.5 more years.

When people ask me how can manifold be useful I will show them this. Help people make their life decisions!

@Mochi thanks for extra 1k liquidity!

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