Predict the region where Cosmos 482 debris will land upon reentry. This market resolves based on credible reports identifying the impact region. Source
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on credible reports identifying the region where the Kosmos 482 debris impacts upon reentry. The possible outcomes are: Ocean, Africa, South America, Australia, Europe, Asia, Oceania and North America. The market will resolve to the region specified in authoritative sources such as the Associated Press (apnews.com) or other reputable news outlets. If the debris impacts multiple regions, the market will resolve to the region where the majority of the debris is reported to have landed. If no credible reports specify the impact region, the market will resolve as N/A.
Background
Kosmos 482 is a Soviet-era spacecraft launched in 1972 as part of the USSR's Venera program intended for Venus. Due to a rocket malfunction during launch, it remained in Earth's orbit for over 50 years. The spacecraft, weighing over 1,000 pounds and covered in titanium, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere around May 10, 2025. Its durable design, intended to withstand Venus's harsh conditions, increases the likelihood that parts of it will survive reentry. The exact reentry location is uncertain, but it could occur anywhere between 52° North and 52° South latitude, covering much of the inhabited world. (time.com)
Considerations
While the spacecraft's reentry is uncontrolled, the probability of debris impacting populated areas is low, as much of Earth's surface is covered by oceans or sparsely populated regions. However, the exact impact location remains unpredictable due to variables like atmospheric conditions and the spacecraft's deteriorated state. (apnews.com)
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The determination of whether there are 'no credible reports' (triggering an N/A resolution) will be made based on information available as of the market closing time.
If no credible reports identify the impact region by this deadline, the market will resolve to N/A, even if such reports emerge after the market has closed.
1,000People are also trading
I will pick N/A as the outcome, as of the closing time of the market no credible news source reported being able to pinpoint the region of the crash. Even though the most likely outcome was the Ocean, all agencies only provided estimates to reentry but no real detection occurred.
It's unfortunate but at least we know it didn't crashed in a dense populated area.
The Kosmos 482 probe crashed to Earth today (May 10) after circling our planet for more than five decades. Reentry occurred at 2:24 a.m. ET (0624 GMT or 9:24 a.m. Moscow time) over the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta, Indonesia, according to Russia's space agency Roscosmos. Kosmos 482 appears to have fallen harmlessly into the sea.
That's just one estimate, however; other space agencies and tracking organizations predicted different reentry locations, from the South Asian mainland to the eastern Pacific. It's unclear when or if we'll get a definitive answer to where Kosmos 482 came down.
Roscosmos reported that the Cosmos-482 entered the Earth's atmosphere on the morning of May 10 and, unable to withstand the heating, collapsed over the Indian Ocean, about 1200 kilometers southeast of the island of Mauritius.
As per ESA, it was expected to be detected by their Germany radar, but it didn't, so it probably crashed already.
NBC reports unknown site
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/soviet-kosmos-482-spacecraft-crashes-earth-rcna205579