Australia is scheduled to hold a referendum on October 14, on whether to change its Constitution to establish an Indigenous advisory body. The proposal initially polled strongly, receiving as high as 65% support at the beginning of 2023, but has declined rapidly over the last months. Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney has a useful polling tracker: https://simonjackman.github.io/poll_averaging_voice_2023/poll_averaging.html

Australia's worst-performing referendum took place under the Hawke Labor government in 1988 and sought to insert constitutional rights regarding jury trials, religious freedom and government property acquisition. It received 30.79% of the national vote.

This market will resolve YES if the Voice referendum receives under 30.79% of the national vote, becoming Australia's new worst-performing referendum. Support by state, although relevant in deciding whether the referendum will pass, has no bearing on this market.