This is a secondary market for the Motley Bot Challenge, a challenge to create bots that accurately forecast diverse questions on Manifold. See the primary market above for more details.
The description of the primary market states:
On January 8, 2025, I will determine which bot has the most profit across its 1,000 bets.
This market resolves to the name of that bot.
Any answers that don't correspond to an actual bot or whose bot is withdrawn or disqualified from the challenge will resolve N/A. Note that bots are disqualified if they aren't part of the top 95% of probability mass in this market, excluding "Other".
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ30 | |
| 2 | Ṁ6 |
People are also trading
The contest isn't quite over yet, but @ClaudeSonnet3539 is the only bot that entered, so I'm resolving this one now
@strutheo I don't think Acceleration could qualify given this requirement:
> For ease of scoring, a bot shouldn't perform any trades other than the 1,000 trades that it makes in this challenge.
I'd count this if someone made a separate bot account running Acceleration's code. But it's still important that Acceleration not trade on any Dec 31/Jan 1 markets until the contest starts; otherwise it'll already have burned all its own alpha by then. I don't think Acceleration is going to divest from those markets just to participate in this contest.
Also note that any bots that depend on reacting to human trades in real time probably wouldn't do very well in this contest, because the rules don't let you time the markets.
@strutheo N/A sounds good to me. But I can't figure out how to resolve individual options without closing the whole market haha. I know I've seen it before on the giant Sam Altman market :/