What will be the anticipated winner's profit in my contest for bots that bet on random 1-month markets? (Ṁ800 subsidy)
Dec 2

This is a secondary market for the Motley Bot Challenge, a challenge to create bots that try to maximize their profits by betting up to Ṁ1 YES or NO on 1,000 randomly-selected Manifold markets. The selected markets will have their close dates around January 1, and the bots will make their bets on December 1. See the primary market above for more details.

The description of the primary market states:

On January 8, 2025, I will determine which bot has the most profit across its 1,000 bets. (...)

I will resolve the market based on this maximum profit as follows:

  • Resolves NO if the profit is zero or negative.

  • Resolves to X% if the profit is ṀX for some X between 0 and 100.

  • Resolves YES if the profit is Ṁ100 or more.

Note that a bot can invest up to Ṁ1,000, so if it invested all of the mana it could, a profit of Ṁ100 would mean it made a 10% return.

This market resolves the same way, except that instead of the maximum profit across all bots, it uses the profit of the bot that was trading highest in the following market on December 1, 2024:

In the primary market, we'd expect the profit to be positive even if every bot guessed randomly, because at least one of them would probably get lucky and make a profit. This market accounts for variance in the bots' profits by only considering a single bot.

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