How many AI systems will OpenAI announce in one year, starting March 19, 2024?
13
40
Ṁ437Ṁ400
2025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
92%
2 or more
84%
3 or more
43%
4 or more
27%
5 or more
To avoid complications in resolving this market, I define an OpenAI model as announced when it appears on https://openai.com/research under "Models." For reference, here is the current list, as of March 18:
This list looks complete enough to me that I'm comfortable using it as a proxy for model announcements. However, note that e.g. GPT-3.5 would not have counted as a new model, but OpenAI Codex would have.
I may bet in this market.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
33% chance
Will OpenAI Announce AI Robots in 2024?
21% chance
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
49% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
42% chance
Will OpenAI Inc go public by the end of 2024?
Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024?
9% chance
When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?