To avoid complications in resolving this market, I define an OpenAI model as announced when it appears on https://openai.com/research under "Models." For reference, here is the current list, as of March 18:

This list looks complete enough to me that I'm comfortable using it as a proxy for model announcements. However, note that e.g. GPT-3.5 would not have counted as a new model, but OpenAI Codex would have.

I may bet in this market.

• Update 2025-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

  • The market will now use a common sense interpretation of what constitutes a new model rather than strictly following the appearance under the 'Models' heading on OpenAI’s research page.

  • All GPT-related entries, including GPT-5, will not be counted as a new model since they are now grouped under the 'Tech' category.