For how many consecutive days will anyone trade in this market?
19
337
190
May 22
98%
chance

Resolves to X%, where X is the number of consecutive days that a human user (not a bot) made a trade on this market. Resolves to 100% if over 100 days.

I will determine the answer by looking at the trades tab in Manifold. I will start with date of the first trade on the market according to the Manifold UI and count the number of consecutive days that a trade was made. For instance, if the first trade was on February 10 and there are also trades on the 11th, 12th, and 13th but not the 14th, this market will resolve to 4%. If it matters, my phone is on Pacific Standard Time.

I will not trade in this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1 YES

Isn't this enough to resolve 100 now?

@hmys No, its not. Its like 37 days off I believe.

@CDBiddulph
Just realised an ambiguity:

When you say "anyone" and "a human user" do you mean one particular person? That is how I took it.

The alternative would count days when different people traded.

@ChristopherRandles I meant that different people can trade on different days, and it'll count as long as someone traded on each day. Have you been trading literally every day? Sorry for the ambiguity, I feel like I have kind of been wasting your life 😅

@CDBiddulph Yeah, I read as any ***one** person trading on consecutive days not any three or more people.

I traded 11 Feb to 2 March then stopped as it went too high I thought. So only 3 weeks. I thought this was worthwhile as it put me in position to affect outcome by stopping but it didn't on your 'anythree' interpretation.

@ChristopherRandles Yeah, I just meant "anyone" as a synonym for "anybody." The resolution criteria say I'll "count the number of consecutive days that a trade was made," not "count the number of consecutive days that a single person made a trade"

bought Ṁ70 YES

This market is undervalued, there is no way this will not resolve yes as anyone just needs to trade 1 a day for a guaranteed profit.

bought Ṁ5 NO

@BenjaminIdelevich have you counted how many days so far plus remainder to close date?

k first traded 29 Feb and continued to 8 April which is 40 days. There are 42 days left.

It was trading around 84 which assumed k would continue trading but has stopped.

Oh well, ignore above, it was my mistaken interpretation.

@ChristopherRandles Yes, but I will, sooo

@BenjaminIdelevich You were right, I had a different interpretation which was wrong.

Now there is less incentive to buy yes will people keep trading? Probably large enough yes holdings to do so but will they cash out to avoid any risk?

sold Ṁ79 YES

@ChristopherRandles HA, I was it it for the short term profit sucker. :)

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

commenting to remind me to trade on this market