Will there be a well-recognized letter/statement on rationalussy by September 31, 2023?

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resolved Oct 2

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Resolves YES if there is a letter released about rationalussy and the possible effects it may have or policies surrounding it by the end of September 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.

We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in rationalussy, and at least one Rationalussy Award winner.

A public figurehead in rationalussy is defined as anyone who meets any of these qualifications:

Top 10 creator in the Rationalussy group
Top 5 trader in the Rationalussy group
Recipient of the Rationalussy Award
Recipient of the Manifold rationalussy badge, if it is ever created
At least 69% of people in a poll agree that they have made major contributions to rationalussy discourse

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14 Comments

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191 Trades

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predicted YES

It is with a tear in my eye that I mourn the passage of yet another month without a rationalussy statement. Yet a glimmer of hope remains, that perhaps there will be one this month.

predicted NO

@Mira Do you know something we don't?

@EliTyre if I knew something you didn't in this market, I wouldn't tell you.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@DanielFilan Yeah. That's just like you.

predicted NO

Is there a work in progress for a statement?

predicted NO

@CollectedOverSpread No motivation to make a statement when the probability is still so high

bought Ṁ50 of NO

So... category leaderboards were just removed, which means that there aren't enough "public figureheads in rationalussy" anymore for this to resolve YES.

bought Ṁ125 of YES

@JosephNoonan I got you covered: I asked @ian to implement this feature a couple days ago for exactly this sort of reason.

https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=rationalussy

Leaderboards

Manifold's leaderboards show the top traders, question creators, and referrers.

sold Ṁ53 of NO

@Mira Dang, now the screwy new category system just lost me a bunch of mana.

@JosephNoonan And by "a bunch" I mean only 46, but still

@Mira Is there any way to access the leaderboards aside from tying in the link?

@JosephNoonan Nvm, I see how to do it.

predicted NO

I just realized that the title says "September 31" which is a nonexistent date. Since the description says "end of September" I will assume this is just a typo.