🏅 Top traders

Welp, that was a poor decision to fall asleep 🤦‍♂️

@dglid Seriously: https://twitter.com/jeffdarlington/status/1571602841822715907?s=46&t=Ls7hL9fM7DLw0aC78l1TBw

It also appears that the market closes after the game ends tomorrow, which is not good.

@akrasiac that should be fine. There's no way for late arrivals to take away the winnings of a prior bettor, if they bid the price up to 100% or no, each share is still worth 1 mana at the end. (This isn't true of multiple choice markets though, which use a different system)

@MichaelWheatley It seems to me that a market that's a YES/NO on an event that's 1) already in the past and 2) widely reported on, which is at, say, 90%, provides free money to people buying yes. While I agree that won't affect the amount won or lost by previous bettors, it being possible to profit in that situation seems against the spirit of a prediction market. Admittedly, I don't have a deep understanding of the principles of these markets, so I'd love for your to enlighten me.

@akrasiac It's not ideal, but in some cases it's inevitable (if an event happens suddenly you can't close the market beforehand), so people focus on making sure predictors get their due, and don't worry too much about the wire service traders.

One thing to consider is that usually the price will get bid up to nearly where it belongs over the course of the game. And sure, afterwards you're going to be able to bid it from 90% to 99.8%, but you won't actually be making very much money because you'll be placing bets with 9:1 odds and higher.

And it does have some advantages: this way people can use a prediction website to get up-to-date on the state of events, instead of seeing what people last week thought today would look like.

You should consider editing the question to have the correct team names. The Baltimore team is the Ravens.