Will Netanyahu be out of office by year end 2024?
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2025
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bought Ṁ750 YES

Israelis are ready for change. In recent polls, conducted by both Israel’s Channel 13 and the Israel Democracy Institute, around 75 per cent expressed a desire to see Netanyahu go. 

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 30% order

I don't doubt it at all, and I certainly hope so. But in Israel, elections are 3-5 months after the dissolution of the Knesset. It must be at least 3 months and at most 5 months. Say Netanyahu's government falls today and elections are called. Then Netanyahu, who wants to prolong his political career as much as possible, will definitely schedule the elections for mid-November at the earliest, after US elections. It will take about 10 days after that for the PM to tap Gantz and then 42 days for Gantz to form a coalition. That means Gantz won't become PM until 2025.

I hope and think Gantz will be PM within a year. But there's not enough time to replace Netanyahu by EOY 2024.

Israel's last election was on November 1 but Netanyahu did not become PM again until December 29. There is no way that Netanyahu will agree to have an election before the US elections on November 5. He can have the election be at least 5 months after it's called, and certainly wants to hold on for as long as possible. Since there won't be an election until mid-November at the earliest, Gantz cannot be PM by EOY.

What also needs to be considered is that if the War were to end, there would be enormous public pressure for PM to resign. Even the US government wants him out of office.

bought Ṁ100 NO

There is absolutely no way that Netanyahu will just resign. There have been huge protests against him before. The only way to remove him is through elections.

Of course Biden wants him out of office. Trump too would likely prefer Gantz. Gantz will be PM soon enough but not by EOY.

Gantz leaving cabinet.

sold Ṁ11 YES

@Bruce54df huh, odd timing with the hostage rescue

@RemNi I believe that Gantz is upset with Bibi because PM has refused to articulate how Gaza will be governed after the war ends. As someone said today, tactics without strategy is noise leading to failure.

@Bruce54df maybe Bibi can't let the music stop

How does this resolve if the election results in his party losing #1 spot, but the coalition negotiations are not concluded by the end of the year (very likely scenario)? Previous PM Bennett became a PM with a tiny fraction of votes, so Netanyahu in theory could continue being a PM even if he lost the election.

predicts YES

@JosephS If he is no longer PM then he’s out of office. If he loses election but is still PM then he’s still in office.