If Joe Biden is re-elected president in 2024 will he finish out his term in office?
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Ṁ753
2025
72%
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predicts NO

But 67% is too high, that's mortality. To stay in office he needs to be capable of performing his duties. If he can't the 25th Amendment could get him removed.

@Bruce54df Actuarial tables are made for the average person. Biden is likely to outperform them because he has access to better medical care.

Actuarial table puts the survival rate for a man of Biden's age at

(1-0.079691)*(1-0.088578)*(1-0.098388)*(1-0.109139) = 67%

@BoltonBailey damn. I wouldn't be surprised if he does a bit better than average with teams of people probably trying to keep him going, but that's such a low number 💀

predicts NO

I made a mistake, will resolve N/A if Biden not re-elected.

predicts YES

@Bruce54df Just fyi, my write up to Bolton Bailey was meant to be a frank comment on general site policy. I didn't interpret you as being a bad actor or anything <3

predicts NO

Will resolve NO is he's not re-elected.

@Bruce54df In that case, could you put that in the description? Under the usual interpretation of "If" in the title, this would resolve N/A if Biden isn't re-elected.

Frankly, it's not very good that you said this at all, probably the betters from before this comment were under the impression it would resolve N/A. It might even be considered a misresolve if it resolves NO if Biden loses, I'm not sure what the other mods would think.

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey 'NO' on no re-election would both be a nonsensical reading of the plain English title, and a break from the site's common understanding of words. I only bet 50 mana in this market so I won't be losing over sleep over this, but I think this is a very clear case where the creator should be overruled.

Frankly I don't think creators should be allowed to do this EVEN IF they put it in the description. I would say it's much worse than what Levi got banned for (setting aside him being a repeat offender). At least Levi put "read description" in the title when he was violating website language norms.

will this N/A or NO if he's not reelected? @Bruce54df

@KennethAnderson Please refer to the discussion above