If Joe Biden is re-elected president in 2024 will he finish out his term in office?
If Joe Biden is re-elected president in 2024 will he finish out his term in office?
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Ṁ1769
resolved Nov 13
Resolved
N/A

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1mo

n/a

1mo

@sn can you please remind me how to get an n/a?

1mo

@Bruce54df It must still be impossible for non-mods, I can resolve it for you.

1mo
5mo

this can probably resolve N/A now.

predictedNO 12mo

But 67% is too high, that's mortality. To stay in office he needs to be capable of performing his duties. If he can't the 25th Amendment could get him removed.

12mo

@Bruce54df Actuarial tables are made for the average person. Biden is likely to outperform them because he has access to better medical care.

12mo

Actuarial table puts the survival rate for a man of Biden's age at

(1-0.079691)*(1-0.088578)*(1-0.098388)*(1-0.109139) = 67%

@BoltonBailey damn. I wouldn't be surprised if he does a bit better than average with teams of people probably trying to keep him going, but that's such a low number 💀

predictedNO 12mo

I made a mistake, will resolve N/A if Biden not re-elected.

predictedYES 12mo

@Bruce54df Just fyi, my write up to Bolton Bailey was meant to be a frank comment on general site policy. I didn't interpret you as being a bad actor or anything <3

predictedNO 12mo

Will resolve NO is he's not re-elected.

12mo

@Bruce54df In that case, could you put that in the description? Under the usual interpretation of "If" in the title, this would resolve N/A if Biden isn't re-elected.

Frankly, it's not very good that you said this at all, probably the betters from before this comment were under the impression it would resolve N/A. It might even be considered a misresolve if it resolves NO if Biden loses, I'm not sure what the other mods would think.

predictedYES 12mo

@BoltonBailey 'NO' on no re-election would both be a nonsensical reading of the plain English title, and a break from the site's common understanding of words. I only bet 50 mana in this market so I won't be losing over sleep over this, but I think this is a very clear case where the creator should be overruled.

Frankly I don't think creators should be allowed to do this EVEN IF they put it in the description. I would say it's much worse than what Levi got banned for (setting aside him being a repeat offender). At least Levi put "read description" in the title when he was violating website language norms.

will this N/A or NO if he's not reelected? @Bruce54df

12mo

@KennethAnderson Please refer to the discussion above

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