When will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?
1
Ṁ125Ṁ1102028
5%
Before Jan 2027
34%
Before Apr 2027
34%
Before Jul 2027
34%
Before Oct 2027
50%
Before Jan 2028
Resolution criteria
This market is independent multiple-choice. Each answer corresponds to a cumulative deadline and will resolve YES if Flávio Bolsonaro physically returns to Brazilian territory before 00:00 UTC on the specified date, and NO otherwise.
Background
Following his defeat in the October 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro left the country for the United States in late October 2026. His departure occurred amid ongoing investigations into alleged corruption and money laundering, and followed an order by the Brazilian Supreme Court to surrender his passports and remain in the country. His Senate mandate is slated to expire in early 2027, removing legislative immunities.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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