Will U.S. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) still be in office by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

One of America's most resilient politicians is facing a tough new scandal.


UPDATE (01/01/2024 at 12:20 am Eastern): Senator Menendez remains in office. Resolving this as 'YES.' Thank you for participating in this market.

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Remains in office as of 12/30/2023

bought Ṁ500 of YES

bit more than 2 weeks to go in the year, and 2 weeks since Santos was expelled.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ5 of NO

The heat is getting turned up, and with another D replacement in the wings that has to go onto a Cmte, pressure will continue to build.

predicted YES


Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) be convicted?
59% chance. On September 22, 2023, Robert Menendez, the senior United States Senator from New Jersey, was indicted by federal prosecutors in Manhattan. The indictment alleges that Menendez accepted bribes in exchange for using his political position to benefit three businessmen and the Egyptian government. [AP News] [New York Times] [The Economist] This market resolves YES if United States Senator Robert Menendez is found guilty of a criminal offense in United States v Menendez (docket no. 23 Cr. 490) by the New York Southern District Court. The market resolves YES if Menendez accepts a plea bargain in which he pleads guilty to at least one charge. Pleading nolo contendere ("no contest") to a charge is not sufficient to be considered a guilty plea. The market resolves NO if Menendez is found not guilty of any criminal offense because he is acquitted of the charges or because the case/charges are dismissed. The market resolves NO if there is a mistrial or hung jury. In any other outcome besides those listed above, the market will resolve N/A. If none of the outcomes above occur before January 1, 2028, the market will resolve N/A. This market pertains only to the proceedings, verdict, and resolution by the New York Southern District Court of the specific case referenced above. Any appeals, referrals, retrials, or subsequent legal proceedings are beyond the scope of the market. Related markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/sarius/will-bob-menendez-be-expelled-from)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrianCaulfield/will-us-senator-robert-menendez-dnj)
bought Ṁ40 of YES

I hate betting yes on this, but the wheels of Justice turn slowly for politicians, and the margin in the Senate is just too slim to force him out. Long gone are the days of senators resigning due to scandals.

predicted NO

@AaronBreckenridge D governor. The wife stuff is going to chase him out, that and a plea bargain. You think he's going to trial with "All Cubans keep a lot of cash and gold hiding in their houses. I'm a US Senator, but it doesn't mean I trust the banks."

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris I hope you’re right

predicted NO

@AaronBreckenridge I'll be right eventually, but I'm not sure when.

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris I just don't see what leverage anyone has other than the prosecutor to force him out. If I were facing criminal charges for (among other things) using my position to help other criminals avoid jail time, I would stay in that position that helps criminals get away with it no matter what kind of social pressure I felt to resign.

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