Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives approves any article of impeachment against President Donald Trump. The official record of such proceedings can be verified through the Congressional Record or reputable news outlets reporting on the event. If no such action occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of May 2025, there have been multiple efforts to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Notably:

• April 28, 2025: Representative Shri Thanedar (D-MI) introduced H.Res.353, containing articles of impeachment citing alleged high crimes and misdemeanors. The resolution was referred to the House Judiciary Committee. (congress.gov)

• May 16, 2025: Representative Al Green (D-TX) announced plans to force a House vote on impeaching President Trump, continuing his history of pursuing impeachment actions. (axios.com)

Despite these initiatives, the Republican Party currently holds the majority in both the House and the Senate, making the advancement of impeachment proceedings challenging. Additionally, public opinion is divided, with some polls indicating a majority of voters support a third impeachment, while others suggest a lack of bipartisan consensus. (commondreams.org)

Considerations

• Political Landscape: The success of impeachment efforts heavily depends on the composition of Congress. With Republicans controlling both chambers, the likelihood of impeachment proceedings advancing is reduced.

• Historical Context: President Trump has been impeached twice during his first term, both times resulting in acquittal by the Senate. A third impeachment would be unprecedented and could have significant political ramifications.

• Public Opinion: While some segments of the population advocate for impeachment, others view repeated attempts as politically motivated, potentially influencing the actions of congressional representatives.

Traders should monitor legislative developments, shifts in congressional composition, and public sentiment to inform their predictions.