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experts seem to think the real chance of this happening was about 1 in 24 (4.17%) as of 6/8, so now on 9/11 it's at about a 2.25% chance of happening, likely less due to the smaller and easier candidates being tested first.

What you people don't know (and I use the term "people" loosely!) is that my newly upgraded Pentium II machine just got assigned a very-promising prime candidate (M117984469), and should finish checking it in two weeks. Have fun staying poor!

@AlQuinn beautiful thing happened while on vacation:

@AlQuinn what does the number in brackets mean? Power or index of the candidate?

@KongoLandwalker that is just progress indicator for primarily test. However, my assigned candidate is known not to have any factors for values up to 2^80 based on prior testing. This one is it, I can feel it!

@AlQuinn no, i asked about (M117984469)

@KongoLandwalker that is notation for Mersenne prime number = 2^117984469-1

@AlQuinn you should create a market on whether You will be the one to get the new M prime.

I got my Windows 3.1 backup computer chugging away as part of the GIMPS effort...feeling very lucky!

Sadly, I just looked at what my computer has been doing, and because of my lowish specs, they are having me recheck a number (2^72349561-1) that was already looked at in 2015 (it seems their Lucas-Lehmer primality test will sometimes bug out and give incorrect result, so they recheck those). So low odds on this first go around, but maybe if I upgrade from a Intel 486 to a Pentium II, I can get a newer number! Also, MS Paint will probably run better with some extra horsepower.

guys, GUYS! 2^72349561-1 is not prime 😭 but I did discover my computer gets very warm while figuring this stuff out, so I've taken to cuddling it at night when I go to sleep. This must be what it feels like to have friends

@AlQuinn find one yet?

wondering if i should liquidate my no position

@brubsby 2 weeks. give me 2 weeks!

ain't gon' happen

If you are following the implied market odds, the true value of YES on 2023-06-11 is ~15%

or just comment here

I'm curious

@SavioMak every prediction market question is an implicit call for more knowledge about the question at hand

@BrendanFinan What does NA provide knowledge about

@TheWiggleMan N/A means that a prediction market failed

This market is incapable of resolving N/A, as it must resolve either YES or NO

@BrendanFinan the priors look higher than 15% to me, given the graph on https://www.mersenne.org/primes/ - they're being discovered almost every year on average. No new discovery since 2018. Which may perhaps nudge one to think "it is about time we got a new one" 😃

List of known Mersenne prime numbers - PrimeNet

List of all known Mersenne prime numbers along with the discoverer’s name, dates of discovery and the method used to prove its primality.

@codingquark it's not every year on average

@ShadowyZephyr perhaps I read it wrong? Looking at discovery dates in the table (https://www.mersenne.org/primes/) from 1990 to 2023, there have been 20 new Mersenne primes discovered. So sure, it is less than 1 a year.

@codingquark Expecting the rate now to be the same as 1990 (when computing speeds were increasing the fastest) is weird. But even including those, it's 33 years and 20 primes, so not close to 1/year.

@ShadowyZephyr I agree, it is less than 1/year. I am curious why we won't come up with a new one anytime soon?

I have not looked at the computational methods involved and therefore have no real estimate of the complexity.

@codingquark i'll take you up on 15% odds if you want :^)